Re: ~cattleman cafe~ & another 24...
I just saw this and thought it worth sharing since we’re all affected by Covid-19. The information is specific to the US but has relevance for us in Canada. Our population is roughly 10% of the US so it’s easy to see the potential impact here.
This is long but well worth reading.
How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the United States?
There are two problems with this question.
First, it neglects the law of large numbers, and
Second, it assumes that one of two things will happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If 1% dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only 1% die. Just 1%. One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden that “but it’s only 1%” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead
62,358,000 people hospitalized
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage
9,846,000 people with muscle weakness
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function
That’s the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%” . If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting Covid-19.
Franklin Veaux
Professional Writer
I just saw this and thought it worth sharing since we’re all affected by Covid-19. The information is specific to the US but has relevance for us in Canada. Our population is roughly 10% of the US so it’s easy to see the potential impact here.
This is long but well worth reading.
How can a disease with a 1% mortality rate shut down the United States?
There are two problems with this question.
First, it neglects the law of large numbers, and
Second, it assumes that one of two things will happen: you die or you’re 100% fine.
The US has a population of 328,200,000. If 1% dies, that’s 3,282,000 people dead.
Three million people dead would monkey wrench the economy no matter what. That more than doubles the number of annual deaths all at once.
The second bit is people keep talking about deaths. Deaths, deaths, deaths. Only 1% die. Just 1%. One is a small number! No big deal, right?
What about the people who survive? For every one person who dies:
19 more require hospitalization.
18 of those will have permanent heart damage for the rest of their lives.
10 will have permanent lung damage.
3 will have strokes
2 will have neurological damage that leads to loss of cognitive function.
So now all of a sudden that “but it’s only 1%” becomes:
3,282,000 people dead
62,358,000 people hospitalized
59,076,000 people with permanent heart damage
32,820,000 people with permanent lung damage
9,846,000 people with muscle weakness
6,564,000 people with loss of cognitive function
That’s the thing that the folks who keep going on about “only 1% dead, what’s the big deal?” don’t get.
The choice is not “ruin the economy to save 1%” . If we reopen the economy, it will be destroyed anyway. The US economy cannot survive everyone getting Covid-19.
Franklin Veaux
Professional Writer
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