I posted this on another topic but it fits in with this discussion as well. As you can read the odds are stacked against us when it comes to moderation. God knows I 'be tried.
Alcohol Use Disorders by Dr. Marc Schuckit
"Abstinence often develops after a crisis, and the subsequent days to months of sobriety are often followed by temporary controlled drinking, which carries a subsequent enhanced likelihood of increasing intake and problems. This fluctuating course relates to the controversy about whether a person with an alcohol-use disorder can return to long-term controlled non-problematic drinking. Abstinence is the usual goal for treatment of dependence in the USA, although efforts to control drinking, or reduce harm, are more often deemed appropriate goals in the UK and other parts of Europe. Some studies have reported that about 20% of those with alcohol dependence were able to drink moderately without problems in the previous year, but this is often temporary, and other studies indicate that fewer than 10% ever develop long periods of non-problematic drinking."
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